RUSSIA AND UKRAINE, THE TALE OF TWO STATES

The world of today rests on a fragile balance of power. The United States dominates world economy, world politics and has also started to influence the thought processes around the globe. Most of the developing world has accepted being mere followers of the Americans due to a lack of clout on the world stage. The developed world, on the other hand, has two ways to approach this American dominance. First, collaborate with them to ensure mutual development. Second, suspect their rise and resort to confrontational measures to reduce their influence in all global affairs. Russia follows the latter school of thought. 

The Russian invasion of Crimea is a clear indication of their intent to form a regional power block which will rival the European Union and more importantly, increase its political clout to bring itself on a level playing field with the United States. Clearly the American advance into Asia has threatened Mr. Putin to believe Russia will never enjoy the same superpower status that erstwhile Soviet Union enjoyed. As Mr. Obama knocks on the doors of Asian giants such as Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and the Philippines in his latest tour of the continent, Russia seems more alarmed than Beijing.

While Obama & Co. believe fostering relationships by providing aid and mutual development schemes such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Russia is flexing its muscles to achieve the same objective. The annexation of Crimea and the following stationing of troops on the Ukrainian border do more harm than good. It provides reassurance to the Pro-Russian majority in the Ukrainian east that Russia has not forgotten about them. The flip side to the same coin although paints a different picture. Firstly, Russia’s immediate neighbors including the Baltic States fear invasion under the same pretext and Secondly, Ukraine fears destabilization with the Pro-Russian east not seeing eye to eye with the Pro-EU rest of the country.

Mr. Putin continues to claim to be acting in the best interests of the Russian population in the neighboring countries. If this is true and he does have something to offer to enhance their overall welfare and state of living, he should let them make their own choices. Inducing a fear of invasion has not been the theme of world politics since the era of the two World wars. Ukraine may not fall into Russian hands as easily as Georgia did in 2004. Oleksander Turchynov has the support of the Americans and the EU. His recent launch of anti-terrorism measures against the pro-Russian elements in his country shows that his patience is being tested. He may not wait until the American imposed sanctions kick in. The ensuing violence might lead to a chaotic state, handling which will prove to be a bigger burden for Mr. Putin to bear. If the Russia does not make peace with the existing world order and fuel its impatient hunger to grab power, it may occupy eastern Ukrainian but lose out on working with the rest of the world. This is hardly a sensible approach to thriving co-existence in this day and age. 

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