The
world of today rests on a fragile balance of power. The United States dominates
world economy, world politics and has also started to influence the thought
processes around the globe. Most of the developing world has accepted being mere followers of the Americans due to a lack of clout on the world stage. The developed world, on the other hand, has two ways to approach this American dominance. First, collaborate with them to ensure mutual development. Second, suspect their rise and resort to confrontational measures to reduce their influence in all global affairs. Russia follows the latter school of thought.
The
Russian invasion of Crimea is a clear indication of their intent to form a
regional power block which will rival the European Union and more importantly,
increase its political clout to bring itself on a level playing field with the
United States. Clearly the American advance into Asia has threatened Mr. Putin
to believe Russia will never enjoy the same superpower status that erstwhile
Soviet Union enjoyed. As Mr. Obama knocks on the doors of Asian giants such as
Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and the Philippines in his latest tour of the
continent, Russia seems more alarmed than Beijing.
While
Obama & Co. believe fostering relationships by providing aid and mutual
development schemes such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Russia is
flexing its muscles to achieve the same objective. The annexation of Crimea and
the following stationing of troops on the Ukrainian border do more harm than
good. It provides reassurance to the Pro-Russian majority in the Ukrainian east
that Russia has not forgotten about them. The flip side to the same coin
although paints a different picture. Firstly, Russia’s immediate neighbors
including the Baltic States fear invasion under the same pretext and Secondly,
Ukraine fears destabilization with the Pro-Russian east not seeing eye to eye with
the Pro-EU rest of the country.
Mr.
Putin continues to claim to be acting in the best interests of the Russian
population in the neighboring countries. If this is true and he does have
something to offer to enhance their overall welfare and state of living, he
should let them make their own choices. Inducing a fear of invasion has not
been the theme of world politics since the era of the two World wars. Ukraine
may not fall into Russian hands as easily as Georgia did in 2004. Oleksander
Turchynov has the support of the Americans and the EU. His recent launch of
anti-terrorism measures against the pro-Russian elements in his country shows
that his patience is being tested. He may not wait until the American imposed
sanctions kick in. The ensuing violence might lead to a chaotic state, handling
which will prove to be a bigger burden for Mr. Putin to bear. If the Russia
does not make peace with the existing world order and fuel its impatient hunger
to grab power, it may occupy eastern Ukrainian but lose out on working with the
rest of the world. This is hardly a sensible approach to thriving co-existence
in this day and age.
follow me on twitter @vidurkalive
follow me on twitter @vidurkalive