CAN A CHOCOLATE KING SAVE UKRAINE ?

While the title may not echo competence or confidence, The chocolate king is the best Ukraine will have to do with. Petro Poroshenko, the President-elect of the troubled nation, who will take office on the 7^th of June is tasked with one of the most difficult political endeavors in recent history. His political agenda will not be limited to mitigating the domestic turmoil inflicted due to factionist propaganda but also to walk a tight rope with Russia and the West holding its two ends. If Mr. Poroshenko manages to rub either of them the wrong way, the tight rope might turn into a noose. The path he has taken to the presidency will help predict accurately the path he will take post-authority.

Before bursting onto the international political stage as the man entrusted with bringing peace and stability to Ukraine, he was known for the billions earned from his confectionary business. The wealth also brought with it a fitting name, ‘The Chocolate King’, which is not indicative of his political experience in the least. He served as the Minister of Foreign affairs in 2009-10 and also as the Minister of Trade and Development in 2012. While these laurels put him in good stead for the top job, they also happen to be major reasons for concern amongst the people of Ukraine and the international community. Mr. Poroshenko is expected to rise from the ashes of Mr. Viktor Yanukovych and offer better governance. But his past political affiliation to the Yanukovych regime along with various corruption allegations which surfaced during his association with President Yushchenko during the budding years of his political years, gives way for doubts and fears.

 But all is not lost. The future should not be held captive by the past. The cloudy sky of Mr. Poroshenko gives way for sunlight to shine through in some places. During his time as the Minister for Trade and Development in 2012, he advocated for further strengthening ties between Ukraine and the EU. Having been the Minister for Foreign Affairs and the head of the Council of Ukraine’s National bank, Mr.Poroshenko harbors holistic knowledge of all the issues troubling the Ukrainian state today – International relations, Economic stagnation and boosting investor confidence. For the common man in the Euromaidan protests of November 2013 – February 2014, witnessing Mr.Poroshenko actively declaring his support for the revolution and providing monetary reinforcements for the protesters, was a turning point. It was this surge in popularity that the ‘Chocolate King’ capitalized on during his Presidential campaign earlier this year.

The Chocolate King will blend a new flavor for Ukraine

Mr. Poroshenko’s election slogan, “Live a new way”, has gone far in instilling hope in the hearts of Ukrainians craving for change in the direction their country is headed. But mere words will not suffice. He has a mountain to climb and while on his way to the summit, he has to tread lightly. Mr. Poroshenko has four glaring problems to deal with. Firstly, he will have to bring the internal conflict between the Pro-Russian and Pro-EU factions to an end. Addressing both sets of concerns and finding a common ground where co-existence seems a possibility, will have to be achieved. Secondly, the Russian army knocking on the borders needs to be kept away. Mr. Poroshenko will have to portray a firmer stance against a potential Russian invasion. Mr. Putin needs to know he cannot walk into Ukrainian territory with ease, as was the case under the interim rule of Oleksandr Turchynov. Thirdly, He has to make sure Russia and the West do not turn his country into a battleground to settle personal vendettas. Russia wants to gain control of Ukraine in order to establish an Asian power bloc to rival that of the EU. This would enable Mr. Putin to call the shots and not let the White House determine global proceedings. Lastly, Mr. Poroshenko needs to find a sweet spot between sentiment and sense. While the dominant national sentiment is inclined towards Russia, the country’s economic future looks more secure with the EU. These options seem to be mutually exclusive as Mr. Putin and Brussels do not seem to want to budge.

Mr. Poroshenko has an amazing opportunity at hand. His every action will reverberate at a global scale. If he plays his cards right, he can not only save Ukraine but also open up new opportunities for co-operation between the West and Russia. He will have to shed his Oligarchic political past and venture into the Presidency with an open mind. Ukraine is the key to global stability as well instability.  

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RUSSIA AND UKRAINE, THE TALE OF TWO STATES

The world of today rests on a fragile balance of power. The United States dominates world economy, world politics and has also started to influence the thought processes around the globe. Most of the developing world has accepted being mere followers of the Americans due to a lack of clout on the world stage. The developed world, on the other hand, has two ways to approach this American dominance. First, collaborate with them to ensure mutual development. Second, suspect their rise and resort to confrontational measures to reduce their influence in all global affairs. Russia follows the latter school of thought. 

The Russian invasion of Crimea is a clear indication of their intent to form a regional power block which will rival the European Union and more importantly, increase its political clout to bring itself on a level playing field with the United States. Clearly the American advance into Asia has threatened Mr. Putin to believe Russia will never enjoy the same superpower status that erstwhile Soviet Union enjoyed. As Mr. Obama knocks on the doors of Asian giants such as Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and the Philippines in his latest tour of the continent, Russia seems more alarmed than Beijing.

While Obama & Co. believe fostering relationships by providing aid and mutual development schemes such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Russia is flexing its muscles to achieve the same objective. The annexation of Crimea and the following stationing of troops on the Ukrainian border do more harm than good. It provides reassurance to the Pro-Russian majority in the Ukrainian east that Russia has not forgotten about them. The flip side to the same coin although paints a different picture. Firstly, Russia’s immediate neighbors including the Baltic States fear invasion under the same pretext and Secondly, Ukraine fears destabilization with the Pro-Russian east not seeing eye to eye with the Pro-EU rest of the country.

Mr. Putin continues to claim to be acting in the best interests of the Russian population in the neighboring countries. If this is true and he does have something to offer to enhance their overall welfare and state of living, he should let them make their own choices. Inducing a fear of invasion has not been the theme of world politics since the era of the two World wars. Ukraine may not fall into Russian hands as easily as Georgia did in 2004. Oleksander Turchynov has the support of the Americans and the EU. His recent launch of anti-terrorism measures against the pro-Russian elements in his country shows that his patience is being tested. He may not wait until the American imposed sanctions kick in. The ensuing violence might lead to a chaotic state, handling which will prove to be a bigger burden for Mr. Putin to bear. If the Russia does not make peace with the existing world order and fuel its impatient hunger to grab power, it may occupy eastern Ukrainian but lose out on working with the rest of the world. This is hardly a sensible approach to thriving co-existence in this day and age. 

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